Workshop: Tools for Estimating Uncertainty in Ecology

August 10, 2014, Ecological Society Annual Meeting, Sacremento, CA. 

Although methods are well established for statistical analysis of most experimental designs, there are fields in Ecology where it is more difficult to establish confidence in results (e.g., in catchment studies, treatments are rarely replicated).   For environmental networks, using standardized approaches ensures that results are comparable, but sometimes the same statistical technique is not applicable to comparable data sets (e.g. when there are significant differences in the sample size of the same population at two geographically distinct locations).   Many of these concerns can be addressed through the appropriate use of tools for uncertainty analysis. This workshop will highlight current developments in uncertainty estimation across many fields of ecology.   Overview presentations will focus on practical examples of how uncertainty calculations can inform data over small-to-large scales.   Data packages and software tools will be shared with the attendees.  Participants are encouraged to bring their own data sets and laptop computers; we will provide data for the exercises if you don’t bring your own.   Organizers Jeffrey R. Taylor, Ruth D. Yanai and John Campbell, and moderator Jeffrey R. Taylor welcome participation by researchers in all career stages and from a broad array of ecological disciplines.

Workshop: “Error propagation for carbon estimation”

December 4-6, 2013, Camino Real Aeropuerto Hotel, Mexico City.  

One objective of the workshop is to show and discuss the methodologies for the estimation of uncertainty and error propagation in different components that influence the estimation of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in the forest sector. Also, it aims to share the experience of national and international experts on uncertainty and contextualize it within the importance that these methods have in creating national reports for the estimation of carbon stocks and their changes.

The workshop will be divided into five main sessions. The first will address errors in estimates of biomass inherent in allometric models. The second will highlight recent research concerning the estimation of uncertainties associated with Emission Factors (within a Tier 2 reporting framework). This second block will cover the calculation of uncertainties associated with measurement errors in forest inventories of important variables for the estimation of carbon. In addition, errors due to sample design and stratification schemes to minimize uncertainties from forest inventories will be reviewed.

The third session will explore issues related to the estimation of uncertainties for activity data. It will cover validation of land cover maps and land cover changes, estimation of uncertainties of the area estimates for activity data and methodologies for the estimation of uncertainties in carbon maps.

In the fourth session, participants will discuss error propagation of uncertainties for emission factors and activity data within a Tier 2 reporting framework. Finally, the fifth session will discuss how to estimate uncertainties in carbon dynamics models for a Tier 3 approach and discuss possible approaches for the estimation of uncertainties in an integrated Tier 2 and 3 approach.

Official website 

Sponsoring Organizations: Mexican National Forestry Commission, United Nations Development Programme, Government of Norway, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

QUEST Workshop at LTER All Scientists Meeting

Members of QUEST held a two hour workshop entitled “Quantifying Uncertainty in Ecosystem Studies” at the 2012 LTER All Scientists Meeting.  The two hour discussion-based workshop started with a round of introductions in which the 40 participants identified their system of study, and the biggest source of uncertainty they face.  The rest of the time was devoted by ten “lightening round” presentations on uncertainty in different ecosystem components (see presenters below).  Each five minute talk was followed up by a group discussion.   We received positive feedback from many of the workshop participants, and a proposal has been submitted for an organized oral session at next years ESA conference in Minneapolis. Full meeting notes are available for download below

List of presenters:

John Campbell:  Intro to QUEST, Participant introductions (what's your biggest uncertainty?)
Harmon:  Intro to sources of uncertainty
Adam Skibbe: Precipitation Uncertainty

Xuesong Zhang: Precipitation Uncertainty
John Battles: Biomass Uncertainty
Mark Green: Streamflow Uncertainty
Ruth Yanai: Uncertainty in Soils
Jeff Taylor: NEON products and their uncertainty
Craig See: Uncertainty in Data Gaps
Carrie Rose Levine: Monitoring Uncertainty

NEON Uncertainty Workshop at ESA 2012

Workshop:  Estimating Uncertainty and Trend Detection in Ecological Data Sets Collected by the National Ecological Observatory Network

Organizers: Jeffery Taylor, Steve Berukoff, Andrew Fox, Katherine Thibault

Description: Ecology is entering a particularly exciting phase, in which the number and availability of long-term data-sets are increasing and the construction of the nation’s first ecological observatory (NEON) has begun. This unprecedented opportunity requires a departure from traditional approaches to ecological data analyses, which have not emphasized uncertainty characterization. New approaches will demand increased proficiency and rigor in both the design of NEON sampling and the analysis of existing and forthcoming long-term ecological data. For example, NEON will collect continental-scale observations of over 500 different ecological variables at 70 sites across the country. Developing a unified approach to estimating uncertainty and detecting trends for all of these data products is therefore a significant challenge faced in the design process. Further development, understanding, and dissemination of the latest statistical techniques for deriving these quantities will both inform
sampling design and equip up-and-coming ecologists with critical skills. This half-day workshop will highlight the underlying mathematical approaches to uncertainty quantification and trend detection and relate these methods to the nationally/internationally accepted standards. Emphasis will be placed on unified approaches to spatio-temporal scaling and the
detection/attribution of long-term trending. The format will consist of 2-3 overview talks, followed by several breakout sessions, and end with a unified synthesis session. Attendees are encouraged to provide feedback and suggest alternative approaches based on their own experience. Lunch will not be provided, but afternoon snacks and refreshments (alcoholic/non-
alcoholic) will be available. NEON will sponsor all costs and the workshop will be free of charge for participants.

Summer Course: Assimilating Long-Term Data into Ecosystem Models

Offered by: PaleoEcological Observatory Network (PalEON)

Dates: August 12-18, 2012

Course description: Estimating the impact of global change processes like land-use and climate on terrestrial ecosystems requires an integration of long-term data and ecosystem models. This course will provide 20 graduate students and postdocs with intensive training in the emerging tools that allow us to:

-estimate the signal and uncertainty in historical and paleoecological data
-assimilate both signal and uncertainty into the current suite of terrestrial ecosystem models

The course has a hands-on, integrated curriculum emphasizing the data/model process from design through data collection, analysis and back to design. We will collect tree-rings, historical survey data and sedimentary data (e.g., pollen, charcoal, and macrofossils). Analysis of these data will take place in a Bayesian mode of inference addressing uncertainty in age-models, calibration of proxy data, and integration of diverse historical data. After an introduction to inference from ecosystem models in traditional "forward" mode, participants will integrate ecological parameters estimated from their data sets into these ecosystem models using formal Bayesian data assimilation.

Participating faculty: Mike Dietze (University of Illinois); Steve Jackson (University of Wyoming); Jason McLachlan (University of Notre Dame); Chris Paciorek (University of California Berkeley); Jack Williams (University of Wisconsin)

Location: University of Notre Dame Environmental Research Center, Land O'Lakes, WI, USA.

Fees: This workshop is funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation and is free to participants. You must provide your own means of transportation to Chicago, Illinois, or Madison, Wisconsin.
There are a limited number of travel grants available to applicants from NEON, Inc., member institutions (see www.neoninc.org/content/paleon-data-assimilation-course).

Application: We are seeking students with interests and backgrounds in paleoecology, terrestrial ecosystem modeling, and/or statistics.  Send a CV, a statement detailing why you want to take the course and how you anticipate it helping your research, and arrange to have a letter sent from your major advisor supporting your application.

Apply to: Jason McLachlan at jmclachl@nd.edu

Deadline: March 30, 2012. Selections announced by April 15, 2012

QUEST at ESA 2011

The QUEST group will be having dinner in Austin, TX on the evening of Monday, August 8, 2011.  We will post details of the time and location closer to the event. Please RSVP to quantifyinguncertainty (at) gmail (dot) com if you would like to join us!

Also, remember to check out our workshop, "Quantifying Uncertainty in Ecological Studies", (WK 18) on Sunday, August 7, from 1pm - 5pm, in room 12A of the Austin Convention Center. Participants in this workshop will gain hands-on experience exploring uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques.